Watch the demo
The ARR Studio walkthrough shows methods, levers, and goal-seek on a live model.
Before you start
- A budget version selected with its forecast window set.
- Ideally a connected CRM or revenue feed (see Connect your data) so actuals and pipeline are real. You can also start from uploaded data.
Choose a forecast method
The right method depends on how your team actually plans the topline. You can mix methods across periods, but start by picking the primary one.| Method | Best when | How it works |
|---|---|---|
| Pipeline | You have a real CRM pipeline | Weights opportunities by stage so a committed deal counts more than an early lead |
| Drivers | You plan bottom-up from sales capacity | Productive reps times quota times attainment, built up per cohort |
| Top-down targets | You plan from a board number down | Enter a target, then split it across segments, regions, and quarters |
Build the forecast
Open the revenue model
Go to Planning, then Revenue. You see your ARR actuals to date and the planning surfaces for the method you chose.
Set your assumptions
Enter the assumptions that drive your method: stage weights for pipeline, quota and ramp and attainment for drivers, or the target and its segment and quarter splits for top-down. Period-scoped assumptions let an account upsell in one year and hold flat in another.
Account for renewals and churn
Set how renewing accounts behave (net retention and churn), per period where it matters. Modeling renewal behavior per renewal month is what lets the forecast reproduce a real plan where the same account expands one year and contracts the next.
Run the forecast
Run the revenue forecast. The engine produces the ARR event stream across your window: new, expansion, contraction, and churn per period.
Read the ARR movement
Open the revenue Overview to see the ARR bridge: beginning balance, the movements, and ending balance for each period. This waterfall is the story you will tell about the topline.
How it reaches your dashboards
Like headcount, revenue lives in a domain universe but every P&L reads the GL universe. Revenue derives into the GL automatically when the forecast runs. The one difference from headcount is recognition timing: a single booking can recognize across several months (a twelve-month subscription spreads across twelve postings), where a person-month maps to one posting. The derivation handles that expansion for you.Common questions
I plan a single annual number, not deal by deal. Can I still use this?
I plan a single annual number, not deal by deal. Can I still use this?
Yes. Use the top-down targets method: enter the annual target, split it across segments and quarters, and let the engine produce the underlying event stream that reconciles to it.
Why is ARR higher than recognized revenue?
Why is ARR higher than recognized revenue?
ARR is the contracted annual run rate at a point in time; recognized revenue is the portion earned in a given month. The two are related but not equal, and Novaplan shows both from the same events.
My pipeline and my driver model disagree for a period. Which wins?
My pipeline and my driver model disagree for a period. Which wins?
By default the higher of the two, not the sum, to avoid double-counting. You control this per period if you want a different treatment.
What you should see
An ARR bridge across your window with new, expansion, contraction, and churn movements, recognized revenue derived from the same events, and the whole topline flowing into the GL alongside your headcount cost.Next
Build a brief
Turn a revenue variance into an executive brief.
Revenue analytics
Cohorts, retention, and reconciliation on your revenue.